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Published at 3rd of January 2022 12:33:57 PM


Chapter 443

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Mark was well prepared for their arrival. He prepared a large amount of accurate information to convince them.

Sophia said, "mark, you're crazy! It's like throwing money into the water to short the subprime mortgage business with $3 billion."

The subprime business has created unprecedented prosperity for the banking industry. Any banker thinks the prospects are good, and there is no bubble.

What mark did was suicide in their eyes.

In the United States, loans are a very common phenomenon, from houses to cars, from credit cards to telephone bills, loans are everywhere. Local people rarely buy a house in full, usually with a long-term loan. But people also know that unemployment and reemployment are very common here. These people whose income is not stable or even have no income at all, how can they buy a house? Because their credit rating does not meet the standard, they are defined as subprime borrowers.

Since about ten years ago, the advertisements of loan companies have appeared on TV, in newspapers, on the street, or filled your mailbox with attractive leaflets:

"Do you want to live in the middle class? Buy a house!"

"Isn't your savings enough? Take out a loan!"

"No income? Find a cowboy loan company!"

"Can't afford the down payment? We offer zero down payment!"

"Worried that the interest rate is too high? We offer a preferential interest rate of 3% for the first two years!"

"Can't afford it every month? It doesn't matter. You only need to pay interest for the first 24 months, and the principal of the loan can be paid in two years! Think about it, you must have found a job or been promoted to manager in two years, and you're afraid you can't afford it at that time!"

"I'm afraid I can't afford to pay it back in two years? Oh, you're too careful. Look how much the current house has risen compared with two years ago. When you change hands and sell it to others, you may not only live for two years, but also make a profit! Besides, I don't need you to pay. I believe you can do it. Do I dare to borrow it and you dare not borrow it?"

Under such temptation, countless American citizens did not hesitate to choose to buy a house with a loan. Are you worried about their debt in two years? American citizens who always feel good about themselves will tell you that anyone who plays movies can become governor. Maybe I can run for president in two years.

Cowboy loan companies have made amazing achievements in just a few months, but the money has been lent out. Can they get it back? The chairman of the company, Mr. cowboy, who is also a person familiar with the economic history of the United States, can't help but know that the real estate market is also risky, so it seems that this income can't be swallowed alone. It's only necessary to find a partner to share the risk, so Mr. cowboy found the leading brother in the economic circle of the United States, the investment bank.

These guys are well-known owners (Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Morgan). What do they do every day? It was idle when I was full and idle. So I came to Nobel economist to find Harvard professor. I used the latest economic data model, and after a few rounds of analysis, I made a few analysis reports to evaluate whether the stock is worth buying.

They are a group of people who cheat on food and drink in the risk assessment market. Do you think they see any risks here? Of course, you can see it with your feet! But there are profits. Why hesitate? Take over! So economists and university professors, after evaluating the data model and the old three, repackaged it, and came up with a new product - CDO (debt mortgage bond), which is, in short, bonds. By issuing and selling CDO bonds, bond holders can share the risk of housing loans.

The risk is too high to be bought. Assuming that the original bond risk level is 6, it belongs to medium high, so the investment bank divides it into senior CDO and ordinary CDO. In case of debt crisis, senior CDO has the right to give priority to compensation. In this way, the risk levels of the two parts become 4 and 8 respectively, and the total risk remains unchanged, but the former belongs to medium and low risk bonds, With the investment bank's three inch "gold" tongue, of course, it sold a full house!

But what about the remaining high-risk bonds with risk level 8? So the investment bank found a hedge fund. Who is the hedge fund? It's a ruthless role in short selling and calling the wind and rain in the financial sector all over the world. It's a little risky to live a life of licking blood with a knife and grabbing food with a tiger's mouth! So with the old relationship, he borrowed money from the bank with the lowest interest rate in the world, and then bought this part of ordinary CDO bonds on a large scale.

Before 2006, the loan interest rate of the Bank of Japan was only 1.5%; The average CDO interest rate may reach 12%, so hedge funds can make a lot of money just by relying on the interest difference.

In this way, wonderful things happened. At the end of 2001, the real estate in the United States soared all the way and more than doubled in just a few years. In this way, just like the advertisement at the beginning of the cowboy loan company, there will be no failure to pay back the house money. Even if there is no money to pay back, you can make a sum of money by selling the house. As a result, people who buy a house with a loan can go to the cowboy loan company, Everyone makes money in major investment banks, banks and hedge funds, but investment banks are not very happy! At first, I thought that the risk of ordinary CDOs was too high, so I threw them to hedge funds. Unexpectedly, these guys earned more than themselves, and their net worth kept rising. I knew I had kept it for fun, so investment banks also began to buy hedge funds and planned to take a share.

It's like "old black" has rotten food at home. I happened to see the annoying little flower dog next door. I was going to poison it. Unexpectedly, the little flower dog is not only fine, but also stronger and stronger. Now, "old black" is covered. Is the rotten food more nutritious? So I began to eat!

The hedge funds are so happy now. Who are they? Bandits who can find a way to borrow ten yuan to play with one dollar in their hands. Can they be honest with a popular CDO now? So they mortgaged their CDO bonds to the bank for ten times the loan, and then continued to chase the investment bank to buy ordinary CDO.

At the beginning, the agreement was signed and these CDOs belonged to us. The investment banks were unhappy. In addition to continuing to buy hedge funds, they came up with a new product called CDs (credit default swap). Wall Street is the hotbed of these genius products: don't they all think the original CDOs are high risk, so I'll insure them, Every year, a part of the money from the CDO is taken out as insurance money and given to the insurance company for nothing. However, if there are risks in the future, we will bear them together.

The insurance company thought, yes, at present, CDOs make so much money that they share profits without paying a penny. Isn't it a free gift to us every year? Done!

Hedge funds think, yes, it's been making money for several years. In the future, the risk is becoming greater and greater. If only part of the profit is distributed, the insurance company will bear half the risk and do it!

So everyone was happy again, and CDs also sold!

Wall Street's greed is never-ending. On the basis of CDs, they issue a large number of bonds. As a result, the "bonds" can be sold crazy. Various pension funds, education funds, financial products and even banks in other countries also buy them one after another. Although the initial scale is the original 50 billion yuan, it is impossible to estimate the subsequent issuance of billions, However, the margin is the expected income of CDs, but it has not changed.

Earning large quantities of gold each day, the most spectacular CDO and CDS related businesses are to describe the market as a result of the daily gain and money. The market has dropped somewhat earlier this year, but the industry is optimistic that this is only a strategic adjustment. It will rise back, and Sophia told Mark that he should not listen to the wind or rain, and the subprime market will not have a bubble.

Mark showed Sophia a set of data models within the Davies fund. Through this model, we calculated that there was a huge bubble in the subprime market, and a new economic crisis was imminent.

Mark said: "Everyone will repay the mortgage. In order to protect their homes, people can do anything, but the mortgage has changed its flavor? Banks have no supervision and requirements on the mortgage. An ordinary family can provide four to five mortgage loans. This is not their home for survival, but a business. There is no necessary basis for CDO. Once the economy occurs, because house prices fall , when the time limit of preferential loan interest rate came, first ordinary people couldn't repay the loan, then cowboy loan companies closed down, hedge funds lost a lot, and then insurance companies and loan banks were involved. Citigroup and Morgan issued huge loss reports one after another. At the same time, major investment banks investing in hedge funds also lost a lot of money, and then the stock market fell sharply, and people generally lost money and couldn't repay The number of people with housing loans continues to increase... "

Sophia's face changed again and again, and finally said, "what's the authority of your group of models?"

Mark said: "Martin commissioned three survey bodies to carry out an investigation. All the analysis data were supported by raw data, so the Davies fund decided that there was a bubble in the subprime mortgage market, and their treasure was in this position."

Mark didn't show the data and model to Megan and them because they opposed it at the beginning, which made mark angry. I'm not Lao Tzu, but my grandson. Please make a fortune? He's King mark with a temper and character.

There is another reason. In fact, the other three are limiting Mark's power. If it weren't for the super sale last year, there would be more contradictions between them. However, it is undeniable that rich profits overwhelm all shields and crises, but the other three are aware that mm group can't turn around mark.

Mark knows this too, so he won't take them to make a fortune.

Sophia said: "if it is true, your risk is still too large. If it is one billion, it will be a reasonable number. Have you considered that if investment banks, hedge funds and insurance companies fail, who will pay for the hedging agreement in your hand?"

Mark said: "in the first two decades of the world, the best opportunity to make money is here. I will never miss it. This one can clear our debt and buy at the bottom after the crisis."

David said unhappily, "we are also facing great risks. Have you ever thought about the consequences of the expiration of the agreement but the crisis does not happen?"




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